e-Forex Magazine | FX EMS Selection & OMS Integration The challenges for Asset ManagersBy Richard Estes, Founder and President of eFX ConsultingRichard Estes looks at the evolving FX trading needs of asset managers, particularly those of real-money asset managers and looks at the challenge of OMS-EMS integration for FX trading, and what it is necessary to understand about the role that both an OMS and FX EMS play in FX trading. The Finance Hive, a networking organization supporting the global buy side trading community, recently published the second report in a series entitled “Global Pulse: FX Platforms”. This report, based on the views of key decision makers for FX for North America-based asset managers, follows an initial report published last summer incorporating the views from their European-based peers. Many in both groups cited a desire to implement a new FX execution management system, or EMS platform, and the top priority in doing so is to have one that offers both “inte..... Continue reading at: http://www.e-forex.net/articles/jun-2020-fx-ems-selection-oms-integration-the-challenges-for-asset-managers.html
Säkert en dum fråga men... Om man ska växla in en liten summa pengar på typ Forex...?
...kan man då bara gå dit och säga "Tja! Här har ni 25 euro och 120 danska kronor som jag vill växla till svenska kronor"? Har aldrig varit på Forex förut. Man måste inte göra nån beställning på en så liten summa eller?
Hallo, sinds gisteren voor het eerst op Reddit, omdat ik hier fire advies in het Nederlands kon vinden. Ik was op zoek naar informatie over waar ik het beste kan doen. Ik heb een hypotheek (deel spaar, deel aflossingsvrij) met een rente van 5,8%. Ik heb een klein deel extra afgelost, zowel de looptijd van het spaardeel verkort als extra afgelost in het aflossingsvrije deel. Daarnaast heb ik geld in een forex automation. Dat levert nu ongeveer 5% per maand op (voor COVID waas het 10-12%). Het lijkt logisch om het geld in de automation te laten en gebruik te maken van het compounden zodat ik over een paar jaar veel hypotheek kan aflossen. Maar nu lees ik hier dingen waardoor ik het gevoel krijg dat dat misschien toch niet helemaal handig is. Ik kan mijn vinger er niet goed opleggen. Wat zouden jullie doen?
How much money would it cost to setup high-frequency trading?
I worked with many HFT startups and I have a pretty good idea of the initial costs that such trading shops have. Data: High-frequency strategies are data-intensive, so you need to get the best data providers at the tick level (level 3). That’s expensive. Depending on the market you are in (forex, futures, bonds, etc) the cost could vary. FX is even more complex, because of its highly fragmented nature, so they will need to have a broad view of all of them. Each provider cost could start from $5k per month each, up to $50k per month Servers: You will need power. A decent server (please don’t use the cloud), could cost you 20k at least. It needs to have 32-cores at least. You can rent a dedicated server, and its cost could start from $2k per month Collocation: That powerful server must be placed inside a collocated environment. The idea is to reduce the latency as much as you can, so being close to the exchanges/venues is the best choice. These data centers will charge you for your server space and for the connectivity you use (cross-connection). This varies considerably depending on the markets you are in. Software: this would be the most expensive piece of your setup. Remember, that the software is the brain of your operation. Not only needs to get ALL the data from the exchanges/venues but normalize it, store it, manipulate it, and prepare it to be consumed by your strategies(s) that will be doing tons of different calculations based on the data they receive. And all that must be done in a fraction of milliseconds (hopefully within 10–50 microseconds) On top of that, you must be sure, that you will have all the different modules in place: price aggregators, order management systems (OMS), execution management systems (EMS), smart order routing (SOR), liquidity manager (LM), risk management systems (RMS). and any interface you may need (to databases, storage, monitoring systems, reporting, etc) Cost-wise, all of this will depends on what you choose. If you go with an off-the-shelf solution (not recommended, cheaper, you don’t own anything, slow), or you start your own development (time to market +1 year, very costly). The cost could vary between $300K to $1M People: you will need human resources. This is not a one-guy operation. You will need to have software engineers, quantitative analysts, and researchers. Think about 150k /year at the low end. Brokers/Prime Brokers: you will need to open up a brokerage account to have access to the trading venues. They will require you to have a minimum capital to trade (besides the commissions/fees they may charge). So, that adds up to your initial setup cost. Conclusions It’s a very lucrative business but is hard to get started. Usually, startups try to start small and grow as they see profits, but that always falls into failure. If you do that, you will fail to have all the above points I’ve listed. Your initial investment is high, and keeping in mind that after having all these startup costs, all your infrastructure in place, and the software ready to run, your first profitable trades could start to come in after 6 to 12 months of operations. I hope my question is not as vague as the others… Please, let me know if I was missing something else, so we can add it to this list 😎 Ariel Silahian http://www.sisSoftwareFactory.com/blog
Ik ben nu 18 en probeer alvast wat geld dat ik nu verdien te beleggen in etf’s om zo later financieel onafhankelijk te worden. Ik heb een baantje waar ik per maand ongeveer €800 verdien waarvan ik 50% in VWRL stop, 25% verspreid over een aantal aandelen en 25% op mijn bank hou als buffer. Nu is mijn vraag of jullie misschien een idee voor een side hustle hebben waar je wat extra geld mee kan verdienen (het liefst vanaf thuis) zodat ik per maand nog meer in VWRL kan stoppen. PS: dropshipping of forex trading heb ik al overwogen en daar weet ik nu van dat dit voor mij niks is.
I am planning to write a forex trading bot from scratch. Since I have zero knowledge on forex, I am looking to first get some basics done, then do some hands on myself for sometime and auto mate the process afterwards. What are some good books om Forex that you would recommend? Please fee free to correct my approach altogether, I might just not be on the right track. But the intent is to create a bot in future.
08-17 16:45 - 'Secure Bitcoin Now | Cryptocurrency | Altcoin | SBN' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Nikkylab removed from /r/Bitcoin within 28-38min
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08-06 13:55 - 'How did 24Option Scam end up being a reality?' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/FirstOptionRecovery removed from /r/Bitcoin within 235-245min
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Hi everyone, Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2vCFtg1zOM&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0yPc7zL1_6pV9ejU-EMYg8Jb-Wm16vJ-Z7wrx7s2Qd9-6c0K9w0ZBtcfM Context: Withdrawing funds using local bank Forex conversion instead of PayPal conversion PayPal around 48 PHP something per 1 USD Local bank around 50 PHP something per 1 USD I just recently found out this video in YouTube. I just want to ask if anyone tried this using their peso account or maybe a dollar account. What bank did you use with it? I tried following the video and sent a message to the PayPal customer service. After few hours, a representative asked for an account validation to proceed the dollar method request. I haven't tried withdrawing yet so I cant confirmed that it is working. The bank I used here is Union Bank Just wondering if I have a local dollar account I can withdraw PayPal funds in dollar straight to my dollar account without any conversion. I've been using PayPal for a long time to receive international payments. As far as I know PayPal automatically converts USD to PHP before it goes to your local bank, which is not good as the rate is super low compare to standard Forex.
Morpher is een nieuw platform om te handelen in aandelen, cryptocurrencies en forex uit Oostenrijk. Het gaat later deze maand live maar je kunt je nu aanmelden voor hun airdrop. Hierbij krijg je $30 gratis in Morpher tokens die je zodra ze live zijn kunt gebruiken om te handelen. Ze verwachten in juni ook uitbetalingen aan te kunnen bieden. Het aanmelden is heel simpel, met een ID verificatie door Fractal (een extern bedrijf dat verificaties uitvoert). Je hoeft niets te storten. Zou het op prijs stellen als je je wilt aanmelden via mijn link: https://morpher.com/invite/rolandh De bonus wordt eind deze week gehalveerd, dus slim om je snel aan te melden :) Laatste update over de launch hier: https://community.morpher.com/d/40-end-of-april-update
Jag skulle kanske villa experimentera med bottaAI någon gång i framtiden, så jag undrar om det på något sätt är möjligt att göra det i Avanza och om det är det, hur? Jag har sett att det går på vissa utländska Forex trading tjänster så som t.ex MetaTrader 4, men då gäller det ju såklart Forex trading, inte aktiehandel. Jag vill helst också hålla mig borta ifrån utländska tjänster.
Tjena pojkar och pinglor! Jag hör till en av de få relativt unga personerna som faktiskt betalar en hel del med kontanter, dock avskyr jag de röda cashguard-maskinerna något groteskt då de är så oanvändarvänliga att jag börjar misstänkta att de bara är gjorda för att få folk att sluta använda kontanter. Detta innebär att jag bara brukar skjuta fram sedlar och samla på mig en jädrans massa mynt i växel. Jag har senaste tiden börjat se mig för efter automater där jag kan växla in mynt men de flesta verkar ha försvunnit i samband med att vi bytte till nya mynt för några år sedan. Bankomat hade förut insättningsautomater som tog emot mynt men de verkar alla vara borta. Bankerna är ingen idé att försöka hos heller för de flesta (om inte alla?) storbankerna har helt slutat med kontanthantering och hänvisar bara till bankomats insättningsautomater (som alltså bara tar emot sedlar). Forex vet jag tar emot mynt men de tar någon procentsats + 100kr för att sätta in det på ett annat bankkonto än ett forexkonto och det är jag för snål för. Har för mig att jag för något år sedan såg en "cashguard-liknande" maskin på någon bensinmack som hade en skål som man kunde dumpa pengar i istället för att slött stoppa in mynten en efter en, men att växla in flera fryspåsar med mynt på en mack kanske inte uppskattas av dem? Nåja, om någon av er har något vettigt förslag på att omvandla mynten till något roligare än en ofrivillig myntsamling tar jag tacksam emot det.
Råd: Hur kan jag deposit en utländsk check i sverige?
Jag har bara invandrat till Sverige för arbete. Jag vill sätta in min sista lönecheck från min tidigare arbetsgivare, men min bank (Nordea) accepterar inte utländska checkar. Jag har också testat Forex Bank, till ingen nytta. Några idéer om hur jag kan sätta in min check? Ledsen för misstag, jag lär mig fortfarande svenska. Jag har skrivits med hjälp av Google translate.
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03-20 17:35 - 'Forex CashPower Indicator NON REPAINT Signals *LIFETIME LICENSE*' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/ForexIndicator removed from /r/Bitcoin within 55-65min
''' [wW]1 [w.forexcashpowerindicator.com]2#AUDUSD BUY Trade M15 Example on 03/20/2020 inside Metatrader 4. Trade based in last signal of Cashpower Indicator. . Forex CashPower Indicator NON REPAINT Signals *LIFETIME LICENSE\* u/2020Version. Indicator for Metatrader 4 with Smart algorithms calculations that emit signals with high-precision (In this new controled version) in strong sellers/Buyers reversal zones with big trades volumes. . 🎯Accuracy are betweem 87 and 96 %. Works in all time frames. You can use to trade Forex pairs ( alls ), bonds, indices, metals, energy, crypto currency, binary options, futures hard and soft commodity. *Lifetime License* Forex CashPower Non Repaint Indicator Newu/2020Version. [link]3 . 🚩Old Version 2018 of CashPower Indicator with ( DarkBlue & YELLOW signals) round arrows signals stayed behind, outdated, discarded Version. ⏳ Special Edition V.2020 Marketing restricted only with our Company CashPower. #Forexindicators#Cashpowerindicator #forexindicator #forexsignals #forexfactory ''' Forex CashPower Indicator NON REPAINT Signals LIFETIME LICENSE Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: ForexIndicator 1: w*w.forex***hpow*ri*dicato*.*om/ 2: www.*orexcas*pow****d*cator.com* 3: previ**.redd.it**g*rybiytu*41****?*i*th=1200**mp**ormat=***&*uto=we*p&**=43*c1*3eccf5298e905a*6fd1*1886cd*b*d*49b Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
Time flies by, Like really. Just before the new year started, I had all my goals set for the upcoming new decade. Took some time to think about them and wrote them down with a pretty solid plan. Now its the 31st of January, and in my opinion, January felt like a week. Things went really fast but luckily im still doing good. Everything is going well, and I am still on the good track for my goals. Recently my life got really busy and spare time is pretty rare for me. Which is okay for me because it actually lets me do productive things in the spare time I have. Because when you have less spare time the value of that little amount of time raises. Also ordered 2 new books wich hopefully will be interesting too. And last but not least, I got back in to Forex trading. Wich I am pretty excited for. Opened my demo account yesterday evening. And I already had €15 profit om the first trade. Pretty tired now, so ill write again. Need to take some rest. Have a wonderfull and blessed day! CLOSED - 03:55 AM
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 22nd, 2019
Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning July 22nd, 2019.
Week ahead: Earnings, GDP expected to show sluggish growth as investors await rate cut - (Source)
Sluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month. More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. FAANG names, like Alphabet and Amazon, and blue chips from McDonald’s to Boeingand United Technologies are among the more than 130 companies reporting. There is also some key economic data, including Friday’s second quarter GDP, which should show a slowing to 1.8% from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace, according to Refinitiv. On Thursday, durable goods are reported and will include an update on businesses investment. There are also existing home sales Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday and advance economic indicators Thursday. But there will be no Fed speakers, after a parade of central bank officials in the past week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The most impactful comments, however, came Thursday from New York Fed President John Williams, who set off a debate about how much the Fed could cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting — 25 or 50 basis points. Even as the New York Fed later said Williams comments were not about current policy, market pros took heed of his words about how central bankers should “act quickly.” Fed dominates Fed officials do not speak publicly in the days ahead of policy meetings, but market pros will find plenty to debate. Fed funds futures were predicting a 43% chance of a 50 basis point cut in July, after shooting as high as 70% Thursday afternoon. “For sure, the Fed is going to dominate for next week. I think we’ll get at least a 25 basis point cut. I’m thinking we’re not going to get 50 basis point cut...The Fed has been burned when it’s been bold,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust. Roth said he believes the market is already pricing in a quarter-point cut, and he does not see the Fed’s rate cut as much of a longer-term catalyst for stocks. If it trims by a half percentage point, he expects just a short-term pop. Economists believe the Fed will cut interest rates even though recent data has improved. That’s in part because Powell has stressed the Fed is focused on the global economic slowdown, trade wars and low inflation, and that it will do what it takes to keep the economy expanding. “The only real catalyst that would really help the market would be if there was a trade deal with China,” Roth said. “I think the likelihood of that is less than > 10%. We’re very pessimistic on the possibility of a real deal with China prior to the [2020 presidential] election.” So, in the void ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will be watching earnings. As earnings rolled out this past week, stocks took a rest from their record-setting streak, as some companies lowered forecasts and most beat earnings and revenue estimates. As of Friday morning, 77% of the roughly 80 companies reporting had beaten earnings estimates, and 65% topped revenue forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Based on actual reports and forecasts, earnings per share for the S&P companies are expected to be up 1% in the second quarter. That is up from expectations that the profit growth would be slightly negative this quarter. “If you look at the numbers, we’re above the averages for top and bottom line beats, but at the same time when you look at revisions, every day we’re getting revisions for third and fourth quarter, and they’re coming down.There’s a real worry of an earnings recession, when you get out into the third and fourth quarter and out to next year,” Roth said. Roth said he’s currently neutral on risk assets, and he sees a slowdown brewing in the smallest U.S. companies that could spread up the food chain. “We do see those fundamental cracks in the economy in small business and the small business labor market, and on top of that you have these big macro risks out there,” such as trade and the upcoming election, Roth said. Slower economy As earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was under 2% since the first quarter of 2017. Economists are watching to see how consumer spending fared in the quarter, after a recent pickup and also whether business inventories are declining. “The data we need is not Q2. What’s at risk is the growth and magnitude of the Fed rate cut. I don’t think Q2 is going to have much impact on the Fed’s thinking,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It’s really how Q3 is progressing. It seems to me the economy softened in April and May and picked up in June with jobs data, retail sales and manufacturing sector.” Chandler said investors will also be focused on the European Central Bank, which some economists believe could cut its overnight deposit rate to negative 0.5% from negative 0.4% currently when it meets Thursday. Chandler said odds are about 50% for the rate cut, which many also expect in September. “While we’re waiting for the Fed to figure out whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points, and we’re waiting for the ECB to get all its forms sorted out ... the emerging markets are pushing ahead,” said Chandler, noting Russia and Turkey could cut rates in the next several days, after similar moves in the past week by South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia. “It just makes the story more global. You’re seeing the trade numbers from China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea weaken. You’re seeing exports form China suffer. Exports from all of Asia are suffering,” he said. “The big surprise for China and Japan has also been on the import side. The declines in their imports is really someone else’s [drop in] exports.” Rate cuts and currency wars Dollar strength has been a consequence of the trade war, and Fed action could help turn it around. “If the Fed fails to move, you’re going to end up with an increasingly stronger dollar,” which impacts corporate earnings, Roth said. “The dollar is quite strong and is increasingly going to be a headwind for U.S. companies. It hasn’t appreciated that much in 12 months, but if we see a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world, you would see a carry trade develop where people would want to buy assets in the U.S.,” he said. The dollar index was slightly higher on the week, but Wall Street has been focused on President Donald Trump’s negative comments on the currency’s strength. As Trump has criticized the Fed, he also complains that other central banks manipulate their currencies to give them an edge in trade. Trump has said the Fed should already be cutting rates, something it hasn’t done since December 2008. A number of Wall Street strategists have said they now believe it is possible that the U.S. government could intervene to weaken the dollar, but that would be unlikely.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Lagging Small-caps: Seasonal and Economic Factors Weigh
Small-caps measured by the performance of the Russell 2000 have been lagging since mid-March with the gap in performance widening in June and continuing into July. At yesterday’s close the Russell 2000 was up 15.35% year-to-date compared to a gain of 19.87% for the Russell 1000. Based upon historical trends this is not unusual for this time of the year nor during times when U.S. economic data is mixed. In the following chart the one-year seasonal pattern of the Russell 2000/Russell 1000 has been plotted (solid black line with grey fill) along with 2019 year-to-date (blue line). This chart is similar to the chart found on page 110 of the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac. When the lines are rising small-caps are outperforming, when the lines are falling small-caps are lagging. Small-caps exhibited typical seasonal strength during the first quarter but have been fading ever since. In some years, small-cap strength can last until mid-June however, that is not the case this year. Going forward, small-cap underperformance is likely to persist until early in the fourth quarter with possible a hint of strength at the end of August.
It’s usually about this time of the year, when trading volumes begin to slump and markets meander that we begin to hear talk of the infamous “Summer Rally” featured on page 74 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019. The “Summer Rally” is usually the weakest seasonal rally of them all. We looked at the current Summer Rally and found it to be above average already, up 10.2% from the Spring low on May 31, and that does portend well for the Summer and Fall Corrections. We lined up the Summer Rallies ranked from weakest to strongest since 1964. Over the past 55 years prior to this year DJIA has rallied and average of 9.1% from its May/June low until its Q3 high. The Fall Rally averages 10.9% and the Summer and Fall Corrections average a loss of just under 9% for a net average gain of a few percentage points over the summer and fall. As shown in the table below, when the Summer Rally is greater than or equal to the 55-year 9.1% average, the summer and fall correction tend to be bit milder, -6.2% and -8.2%, respectively. Summer Rally gains beyond 12.5% historically had the smallest summer and fall corrections. One prominent exception being 1987.
Earnings (and Guidance) Likely to Make or Break the Rally
Once again today, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new all-time highs. With today’s modest gains, DJIA is up 17.3% year-to-date. S&P 500 is even better at 20.2% while NASDAQ is still best at 24.5%. Compared to historical average performance in pre-election years at this time of the year, DJIA and S&P 500 are comfortably above average. NASDAQ’s impressive 24.5% gain is just average (since 1971). NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally delivered again, but officially ended last Friday. The seasonal pattern charts, above and below, along with July’s typical performance over the last 21 years suggest further gains during the balance of July and the third quarter could be limited. For the market to make meaningful gains in the near-term earnings will need to decent and forward guidance will also need to be firm.
Yesterday was another one of those days that makes you scratch your head. In a relatively busy day for economic data, Initial Jobless Claims came in within 25K of a 50-year low, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report saw its largest m/m increase in a decade. That follows other data last week where Retail Sales were very strong and CPI and PPI both came in ahead of consensus forecasts. The trend of better than expected data since the June employment report on July 5th is reflected in recent moves of the Citi Economic Surprise Index which has rallied from -68.3 up to -41.5. Granted, it’s still negative, but what was looking like a real dismal backdrop for the economy just three weeks ago seems to be showing signs of improvement.
On top of the economic data, two notable interviews from FOMC officials Williams from New York and Vice Chair Clarida moved markets. Given the strong tone of economic data, one would expect both officials to try and tone down rising market expectations regarding any aggressive policy moves at the July meeting. Well, markets don’t always make sense. In their respective interviews, both Williams and Clarida not only didn’t tone down expectations, but they added fuel to the fire. Williams noted that “it pays to act quickly to lower rates" and "vaccinate” the economy "against further ills." Clarida was even more direct when he said that “Research shows you act preemptively when you can.” In other words, the data-dependent Fed is casting the data aside and ready to move anyway. In his interview on Fox Business, Clarida almost got a chuckle when asked whether there was any chance the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in July. The dovish turn from the Fed was immediately reflected in market expectations for rate policy at the July meeting. Back in June, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) cut at the next meeting peaked out at under 50%. Then, in the days following the June employment report, expectations dropped all the way down to 3%. In the last ten days, though, the trend has completely reversed, and as of yesterday’s close topped out at 71% versus just a 29% chance for a 25 bps cut. Probabilities for a 50 bps cut came in a bit overnight but are still at about 50/50. Yesterday alone, though, expectations for a 25 bps cut and a 50 bps cut more than completely reversed from the prior day, and remember, that’s after what was a good day of economic data! Can you imagine what expectations would be like if the data was actually bad?
The Bloomberg World index is a cap-weighted index made up of nearly 5,000 stocks from around the world (including US stocks). While the S&P 500 has been hitting new all-time highs over the last week, the Bloomberg World index remains 7% below highs that it last made back in January 2018.
Below is a chart showing the ratio of the S&P 500 to the Bloomberg World index since the World index's inception back in August 2003. While the World index outperformed the US for five years in the mid-2000s, the US has been outperforming since the end of 2007, which includes both the Financial Crisis and the bull market that has been in place since the 2009 lows.
Along with the relative strength chart between the two indices above, below we show the price change of the S&P 500 versus the Bloomberg World index since August 2003. Through today, the S&P was up 203% versus a gain of 142% for the Bloomberg World index.
Since the November 2016 election, the S&P 500 is up 40% versus a gain of 26% for the Bloomberg World index. Notably, the World index kept up with the S&P through early 2018, but weakness for the World index in mid-2018 and a failure to bounce back as much as the US this year has left the World index well behind.
The S&P 500 is up over 20% YTD, but over the last 12 months, it is up just under 10% on a total return basis. And within the S&P 1500, there are only 44 stocks that are up more than 50% on a total return basis over the last 12 months. These 44 stocks are listed below. Innovative Industrials (IIPR) -- a cannabis REIT -- has been the best performing stock in the S&P 1500 over the last year with a total return of 302%. In second place is eHealth (EHTH) with a gain of 269%, followed by Avon Products (AVP) at +174.8% and Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE) at +128.58%. Coca-Cola Bottling is probably one of the last names you would have guessed as a top five performer over the last year! Other notables on the list of biggest winners include Advanced Micro (AMD), LendingTree (TREE), Starbucks (SBUX), AutoZone (AZO), Chipotle (CMG), Hershey (HSY), and Procter & Gamble (PG). Some names that aren't on the list that you may have expected to see? AMZN, NFLX, MSFT? Nope. None of the mega-cap Tech companies are on the list of biggest winners due to serious weakness from this group in Q4 2018.
Although the last two trading days have seen exceptionally narrow daily ranges, today we wanted to take a quick look at the S&P 500's frequency of 2% daily moves (either up or down) in the post-WWII period. The chart below breaks out the frequency of 2% days by year, and years with more than 25 one-day moves of 2% are notated accordingly. Overall, there have been an average of 11 daily 2% moves in a given year. After five straight years from 2007 to 2011 where we saw an above-average number of 2% days, the last seven years have only seen one year with an above-average number of occurrences (2018, 21). Remember, in 2017 there wasn't one single trading day that saw the S&P move up or down 2%! So far this year, there have only been four 2% days, but with the most volatile part of the year on tap, we are likely to see that number increase in the months ahead. Don't expect the relative calm that we have seen in the last few trading days to last forever. Volatility is unpredictable and usually comes up and surprises you when you least expect it!
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Amazon.com, Inc. $1,964.52
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, July 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.29 per share on revenue of $62.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.34% with revenue increasing by 18.20%. Short interest has increased by 14.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,737.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,494 contracts of the $2,000.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $16.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.20% with revenue increasing by 24.33%. Short interest has increased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.8% above its 200 day moving average of $164.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 16,697 contracts of the $290.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.44) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 84.80% with revenue increasing by 59.41%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.1% below its 200 day moving average of $280.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 30,445 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters.
Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.89 per share on revenue of $20.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.24% with revenue decreasing by 16.44%. Short interest has increased by 11.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% above its 200 day moving average of $362.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,176 contracts of the $325.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
AT&T Corp. (T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.89 per share on revenue of $45.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.20% with revenue increasing by 15.48%. Short interest has increased by 16.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% above its 200 day moving average of $31.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 144,398 contracts of the $28.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $358.48 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.08) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $335.00 million to $360.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.09% with revenue increasing by 36.69%. Short interest has decreased by 3.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $10.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,449 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, July 26, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.1% move in recent quarters.
ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $14.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 33.33% with revenue increasing by 53.48%. Short interest has decreased by 8.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 63.8% below its 200 day moving average of $1.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 16.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.28% with revenue decreasing by 2.88%. Short interest has increased by 39.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 31.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.7% below its 200 day moving average of $29.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 9,264 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, July 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $828.49 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $770.00 million to $830.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 16.60%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% above its 200 day moving average of $33.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,151 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.7% move in recent quarters.
Visa Inc (V) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.33 per share on revenue of $5.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.83% with revenue increasing by 8.78%. Short interest has decreased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $150.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,839 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
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